Recap & Week Ahead – Well my friends, here we are! Another football season is upon us. It is my 12th season covering football in a public forum and thankfully never close to a losing season of content! I look forward to the same this year and I thank you for joining me! All the new tools for the 2022-23 season will only amplify the content’s performance. Here’s a breakdown of the public and free tools/changes for this football season…
In TSP Live, a new “known” bettor tracker which will follow a couple top bettors at one of the books I am associated with and provide subscribers with those bettor’s above average wagers. If the new tool works, it will likely make its way into all sports content in TSP Live moving forward. TSP Live also debuts the new In-Play Analytic which provides calculated in-play target prices for select events each day. Games are selected on a specially designed algorithm which filters above average in-play value potential. In less than one month (the In-Play Analytic debuted on August 11th), the analytic is +7.0 units with a +20.6% ROI!
On Twitter and Telegram, I have updated the format for content reports. Reports to both platforms now include an algorithmic value calculation to let you know if the angle being reported shows positive expected value (+EV), neutral value (0EV) or negative value (-EV). The report also includes an optimal in-play price to target. The in-play price is calculated to be +EV and is based on the statistics of the teams/players in the event. I hope this will assist you in wager assessment and strategy. Only +EV reports and in-play targets which are achieved are graded. Any 0EV or -EV reports are not graded. However, if a 0EV or -EV report does have its in-play target achieved, then the in-play will be graded. In-play results for these Twitter and Telegram reports have been added to the records table at https://tsp.live/sports-records/. The central page for all records table links and content logs is TheSharpPlays.com/records-transparency/ and all logs and tables are typically updated every morning.
Moving forward this football season, the goal of Twitter Twitter.com/TheSharpPlays will be to provide algorithm selections, sharp & other content reports, novelty information (Mr. Poison or large wagers placed), along with other misc. content I think is useful or fun for bettors.
The Telegram channel (https://t.me/tsplive) has been renamed “The Sharp Plays War Room”. The goal will be for this channel to act as a war room for more serious TSP bettors. What does that mean? I will use the channel to send out thoughts for the day’s action, in-play strategy, TSP Live alerts, and more. Each day I will have a recap of the previous days action…posted either in the morning or like yesterday…the previous evening. Basically, taking the content to the next level with real-time messaging and using the channel to tie all the TSP content together…free and paid! The channel also allows for longer messages than on Twitter which makes strategy discussion much easier.
SEPTEMBER TSP LIVE & FMA SUBSCRIPTIONS are NOW OPEN FOR SIGNUP at https://TSP.Live/tsp-live. Options ranging from 7 days up to 1 year are available. TSP Live Analytics members have access to analytics & content such as the TSP Live Radar, Real-time Book Needs, KB Consensus, Top Sharp Consensus, the Oddsmaker’s Report (including the new “known” bettor tracking), Hermes and the new In-Play Pricing analytic. On top of daily analytics access, TSP Live members get access to TSP Live Insider…which provides my exotics (teasers/parlays/rollovers which have provided over 300 units of profit since 2011) when I have one, discussion of strategy, early sharp buys and more! It is truly the Sports Information Buffet…and you have a front row seat! For more details or to signup for TSP Live Analytics click here or visit TSP.Live/tsp-live.
Quality TSP content doesn’t end with sports either! The Financial Market Analytics (FMA) subscription is chugging along in its third year, another profitable one, with the FMA Spotlight collecting cumulative returns in 2022 of +42.9% using passive targets and 65.7% using aggressive targets! FMA access is part of the All-Inclusive subscriptions, or can be purchased as a separate subscription each month. To signup, visit TSP.Live/fma.
As always thank you for your support on the paid content! Your paid content purchases that support everything I do at The Sharp Plays (free & paid), expands the content and technology utilized, and supports things important to me. I am continually grateful for your support! I would not be here without you.
Lastly, don’t forget about the TSP Telegram channels! There is a TSP Sports Channel, a TSP Trading Channel and a TSP Twitter Clone Channel. For details on each of the channels and how to join them, simply visit https://thesharpplays.com/tsp-telegram-channel/.
Now let’s get into this week’s action…
Early Sharp Buy (0-0-0 for +0.0 units) – In this section of the newsletter I look for what play is seeing the cleanest and largest sharp buy at this point in the week. The section is graded based on the result of the play here, however this play can be used for a few things. We have seen situations whereby the newsletter’s early buy sees counter buying later in the week. These reverse buys have shown to be a VERY STRONG and profitable follow. So, keep the below game in mind as the week goes along and let’s see what happens.
For the week ahead, the early sharp buy is on South Florida +12 over BYU. I have not researched either of these teams for the season ahead to know who is good and who is not. All I can say is that it is clearly a target for sharp action.
Early Algorithm Look (0-0-0 for +0.0 units) – The section here is quite simple. I run my favorite NFL & NCAAF side algorithms and my favorite NFL & NCAAF totals algorithms each week. I then post the play showing the most value here.
For the week ahead, the early algorithm look is showing that largest value on Arkansas -6 over Cincinnati. The algorithm shows a calculated spread of Arkansas -9.5, thus providing 3.5 points of value.
My Handicapping (0-0 for +0.0 units) – I am going to recycle a play here, but that’s only because I REALLY like it. I am going with SMU -11. I unveiled this play as part of the Cold Front Reversal strategy in Monday’s TSP Live Insider. I grabbed it at that time at the -10. Now the line is up to -11. I will grade at -11 given that is the current line and I expect SMU to win by a decent margin…so I am not worried about the line move.
I liked SMU before the Cold Front Reversal setup even played out. Then that setup occurred and I couldn’t pass up a wager here. SMU has always had a decent offense, the defense was the problem. However, the team has a very strong front seven this year and their corners will have some experience under their belts from last season. The defense is still a concern because it is SMU, but I think the offense will smoke North Texas. The North Texas defense wasn’t good at stopping UTEP…the UTEP offense was beyond inept in the red zone. SMU should roll them over and easily cover the 11. Despite my love for this wager and the multiple angles coming into play here…it’s still just a 1 unit bet for me!
My Two Cents – For those of you who are new to the TSP Newsletter, this is the section I use to rant, rave and hopefully educate you on a variety of gambling topics. My ranting and raving can be about anything that strikes me from the previous week or the week ahead. It’s all about having some fun and letting off some steam. Sometimes it is a serious topic too as will be the case this week. The first message I like to post in the newsletter for every football season is a simple one.
PLEASE bet smart and disciplined. I know, you get tired of hearing about it, but 99% of gamblers who will find themselves in a serious financial hole this football season or at any time will get there because they lost control of their wagering.
Betting is like any emotional activity in your life…once emotion comes into play you lose all rational thought. There are people sitting in prisons right now for the rest of their lives because they killed someone solely out of emotion. Not some mob hit, not a drug deal or robbery gone bad. Someone walked into their bedroom and saw their wife banging away with some other guy, ran to the night stand, grabbed the gun and shot the bastard. Pure emotion…zero rational thought and their life is now over as well. Wouldn’t it have been better for that guy to call his wife some awful name and just walk out of the house and her life? He’d likely be sitting here today with a new girlfriend and getting ready for another football season with The Sharp Plays. Instead he will never see Vegas again…never go to a football stadium for a game…never walk free.
Yes, the above is a VERY DRAMATIC example to emphasize a point…emotion can devastate your life if you lose control of it. Emotion is so powerful that it can turn the nerdy office employee into a murderer in 4 seconds! Emotion in betting might not put you in prison for the rest of your life, but it can lead to financial ruin. You can have a bettor who is rational, smart and disciplined 98% of the time. The bettor wagers 1 unit all the time, light volume and doesn’t sweat the wins or the losses. Then one day they bet a Yankees UN8.5. The game is going along well and is 1-0 in the bottom of the 9th…with two outs and nobody on. Then a HR ties the game. In extra innings the final is 10-9!!! COME ON!!!!! The Yankees game was in the afternoon so you still have a full day of action. You don’t really like anything in but you need to get that Yankees UNDER loss back because it is SO ANNOYING!!!! Instead of just betting 1 unit…you are going to show the gambling gods who is boss! You fire a 3 unit wager to win 2 units on Tampa Bay -150 and it loses 7-1. FUCK YOU LADY LUCK…take this…11 units to win 5 units on LA Dodgers -220…no way a -220 loses….but yes it too loses. What just happened??? A rational bettor who built up 10 units of profit over what was a great month just blew it all in and then then some (5 more units to be exact) in one day because they lost control. It usually doesn’t end there. The next day this bettor then chases with 2 unit and 3 unit bets trying to get even…but they are in a cold streak, not thinking rationally and the losses grow. By the time the emotion runs out they gave back 25 or 30+ units in the process. DEVASTATING! Sometimes it is even worse. Don’t think it happens?? It happens EVERY SINGLE DAY in the gambling world…sports, casino, poker, horses…you name it…some is going through it today. I hate to say it and I wish I could prevent it, but someone reading this right now is going to experience something like it this football season.
So, if my writing this makes something think twice when their emotion starts to bubble up because of gambling, it was well worth the time and well worth annoying people reading this by covering this topic yet again!
How can you prevent yourself from losing control to emotion? We all know when we are getting triggered in our betting. Our heart races, we sweat, we get agitated by little things. It happened to me today. I bet Tauson -107 in tennis. Girl lost the 1st Set but was playing good in the 2nd Set. She got injured and then missed her chances on triple set point and lost the match in a tiebreak. Frigging BRUTAL!!!! She had the match in her hands. I was annoyed and thanks to the US Open there is plenty of action all day long for me to press, chase and vent my gambling emotions. What did I do?
I got up from the PC and went to run some errands. Roll down the window, play some music and relax. The next matches weren’t for another hour. I ran my errands, came back, sat down and pulled up the odds. I was able to clear my head, my emotions died down and then I checked the next slate of tennis matches…issuing a TSP Live Memo with my thoughts…and placing just a 1 unit wager.
The nice thing with emotion is that it does not last long in your system. Nobody stays jacked up for days on end unless they keep feeding the emotion. So, when you feel emotion ramping up, go do something. There are a few movies I love and could watch 100 times. I keep them on my phone for this very purpose. I’ll throw on Game of Thrones or some movie and just sit back and let my mind go to this fantasy place for a little while. In no time the emotion has all but died down and I can get back to work with a clear head and without the need to press and chase.
So, when you recognize your emotion getting out of control, step away. I know it’s tough. I know the impulse is to bet and get even immediately…but nothing ever good happens from it. For every one bailout that works out for an emotional bettor…ten do not! It’s not a good ratio! There are going to be games later today, tomorrow, the next day, the next week, the next month, the next year. It’s plenty of great content and action ahead…no reason to force to get even today. The books are bankrolled by people losing control of their emotions…don’t let it be you that funds the new bank of kiosks at the MGM Grand!
That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! Stay safe out there! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it!
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays