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As a new season gets underway I thought it important to revisit a topic that is always near and dear to my heart…bankroll management. The leading reason bettors lose, sometimes to the point of financial devastation, is because they lose all bankroll management and discipline.
If a bettor does NOTHING different except maintains proper bankroll management they will be SHOCKED by the immediate change in performance and the lower stress level. Bankroll management makes a huge difference, but you only realize it when you put in the effort to do it right…or when you completely disregard it and find yourself wondering how you went broke.
Setting proper bankroll management is not that difficult to do. Anyone who can do division can do it. Below are two methods of bankroll management and locating your unit wager levels. One is the mathematic and scientific method for deciding proper wager levels. The other is a little less scientific, but it does have its merits.
The first method, which I use, is I take the amount of money I am going to dedicate to my gambling investing/betting/trading (whatever you want to call it) and then I divide by 100. The resulting number is my per unit wager. So, if I were to dedicate $1,000 as my sports gambling bankroll, my per unit wager would be $10 ($1,000/100 = $10).
Why a 100 unit bankroll? SIMPLE…it allows me to weather all the ups and downs of sports betting. Most people just expect to win easy money at sports betting…but it is a tad more difficult than just showing up to a sportsbook with money in your pocket. I know, I was shocked to find out that fact too.
A statistical analysis completed a few years back and based on a sharp bettor who achieves a +7% ROI. It is important to note that a +7% ROI is at the high end for a professional bettor. Anyway, the analysis showed that this +7% ROI bettor would experience during each calendar year a drawdown (cold run) that would cost their bankroll -25 to -30 units! It isn’t a guess, it isn’t someone just making it up. A complete statistical analysis was completed and found based on statistics (sportsbook edge, player edge, daily betting, etc.) that a 25 unit drawdown was not just possible, but incredibly likely…and again…this result is for a bettor who achieves a +7% ROI in that year. Now imagine the drawdown of a public bettor who’s ROI is -5% (average for a public bettor)…yeah…eventually their drawdown will be 100%! Again, not guessing…simple mathematics and statistics at work! Public bettors regularly speed up that drawdown to total decimation by losing any semblance of bankroll management by engaging in pressing and chasing.
At a minimum, having bankroll management will keep you in the game longer as a public bettor. As a sharp bettor, or a bettor using +EV content like TSP Live or The Sharp Plays Telegram and Twitter content, you will maximize your gains and lower your stress level DRAMATICALLY!
However, some people just don’t like math. Those folks don’t want to use a 100 unit bankroll and they don’t want to calculate their per unit wager. Well, I understand and I am here to help!
I developed a new way to calculate your base wager (1 unit) based on the emotion you experience when you lose different types of wagers. For example, think of an amount of money that you would wipe your ass with and flush down the toilet. Got that amount in your head…OK…that’s a pizza money bet to you!
So, if I say I am betting a pizza money parlay and that parlay loses…and your emotional response is “SON OF A BITCH…I am just pissing fucking money away” then you miscalculated what a pizza money bet (0.30 unit wager) should be for your financial situation.
To know if you are betting appropriately, here are the emotions a bettor should feel based on losing the corresponding unit amount on a wager…
100 unit wager = I can’t gamble anymore…this time I am done
25 unit wager = Someone needs to hold me…please
10 unit wager = Fucking TSP cocksucker content fucking BLOWS!!!
5 unit wager = Um, I can’t get my ass to unclench itself…and I think I pissed my pants a little.
2 unit wager = Ouch that stings!
1 unit wager = Oh well…on to the next one
0.50 unit wager = Hey…it was fun and I got a little action
0.30 unit wager = I wipe my ass with this kind of money
So, if you do not want to figure out your total sports betting bankroll and then divide by 100 to decide on what your base wager (1 unit) should be within your financial situation, then please use the emotional betting guide above. Thereby, the next time I say I am betting 1 unit on a wager, think of an amount of money that if you lost you would feel…”Oh well…on to the next one”…that amount of money is a 1 unit wager for you!
If I say I am betting 1 unit…you place your bet on that same wager…the wager then loses and your emotion is…”I can’t get my ass to unclench itself…and I think I pissed my pants a little“…your wager was not the same as mine. You likely bet roughly 5X what I would have wagered on that bet if I were in your financial situation.
As we get ready for a new football season, I hope this helps with bankroll management. If the idea of 100 unit or 50 unit bankroll…risking 1 unit per wager…etc…is too complicated, boring or annoying to you….at least have some form of sizing your wagers…even if that basis is derived using your emotions!
Let’s have another fun and profitable football season! Thanks for joining me!