“Unlike many believe, the book doesn’t require us to bet every day, and in most cases, there’s no minimum wager. This allows for strategic betting rather than forced action. I’ll bet lightly when I have an edge, but if the market is concerning, I’ll gladly pass—even for multiple days. Conversely, when the market is in my favor and I have a strong edge, I’ll press my action aggressively. This approach helps maximize ROI while ensuring I never bet just for action or, worse—chase losses. Discipline is key. Sports betting can trigger strong impulses and emotions, but if you can control yourself, you become a danger to the sportsbooks—rather than a danger to your own bankroll.” – The Sharp Plays

The Sharp Plays Index (TSP-I) Explained

The Sharp Plays Index (TSP-I) is a market momentum indicator that tracks public vs. sharp money performance across all sports and betting markets at the book.

How It Works:

  • The TSP-I calculation compares the daily performance of sharp vs. public money across all available betting markets (game lines, period lines, quarter lines, sides, totals, etc.).
  • The result is then visually represented in a chart to illustrate who currently has momentum—sharps or the public.
  • The TSP-I line tracks overall market trends, while the “TSP-I 5 SMA” line is a 5-day simple moving average of the TSP-I line.

Understanding the Index Scale:

  • -5 → VERY PUBLIC market (public bettors are winning)
  • 0 → Neutral market (balanced performance)
  • +5 → VERY SHARP/VALUE market (sharps are dominating)

Although the TSP-I can range from -5 to +5, it typically tops out around 3.3 to 3.5 and bottoms around 0.5 to 0.8.

  • A sport reaching 3.3-3.5 suggests the sharp run is near its peak, and regression is likely.
  • A sport dropping to 0.5-0.8 suggests a cold streak is ending, and momentum may shift back to the sharps.

How This Relates to Market Trends

Just like in financial markets, traders use price, volume, and other data metrics to track trends through tools like RSI, MACD, etc.. Similarly, public vs. sharp performance in sports betting can be analyzed in the same way.

At its core, gambling is a series of hot and cold streaks. Recognizing when a hot streak is ending or a cold streak is about to reverse can help adjust wager strategy accordingly.

How to Use the TSP-I Chart:

  • If you’re betting a sport and the public is in control (index is declining), you might not want to fade the public at that moment.
  • If the sharps are in control (index is increasing), it may be wise to follow the sharp money and possibly fade the public.

One personal rule: I never advise following the public or fading the sharps—regardless of the trend. But ultimately, how you use the Index is up to you!

Clicking on the league/sport will allow you to highlight respective line within the chart for easier viewing.

TSP Index

Data in this table is now a running data set. While the chart above will only cover the previous 30 days, this table will cover a longer period of time. The larger time frame allows users to download this table and do their own long-term analysis and charting. Enjoy and good luck!