Originally published on September 3, 2022, this article addresses a question that surfaces every season — especially when alerts go out for -EV or 0EV angles.
“If it’s negative expected value… why even post it?”
To answer that, we first need to define what these terms mean in real betting terms — and why they’re vital to your success as a long-term bettor.
🧠 Definitions: What is EV?
EV stands for Expected Value — a concept that measures the profitability of a wager over the long run. There are three key categories:
✅ +EV (Positive Expected Value)
- The wager has value at the current price
- Expected to generate a long-term profit
- These are the bets we love
⚖️ 0EV (Neutral Expected Value)
- The current price is fair — neither side holds an edge
- Over the long run, you’ll likely lose due to vig
- Basically, it’s a coin flip…with juice
❌ -EV (Negative Expected Value)
- The wager is overpriced or steamed out
- Expected to lose money consistently over time
- These are the bets the book wants you to make
🔍 Case Study: Bowling Green +23.5 (September 3, 2022)
An alert was posted labeling Bowling Green -EV pregame at +23.5.
So why post it if it holds negative value?
Because bettors were seeing Bowling Green open at +31.5 and steam down to +23.5 — an 8-point move. That type of steam usually signals sharp money.
Understandably, many bettors had this reaction:
“Whoa, that’s a sharp move. Must be a great play!”
But not at +23.5. At that point, the value has already been extracted.
🧠 Posting the -EV alert was meant to:
- Educate bettors on the current pricing
- Prevent steam-chasing at a terrible number
- Highlight that the edge is gone (or worse, reversed)
💡 Why Not Just Fade -EV Bets?
If +23.5 is -EV, shouldn’t -23.5 be +EV?
Not necessarily.
The truth is, in many cases, both sides can be -EV — especially on moneylines or after large steam moves.
This is the ideal scenario for the sportsbook — pricing both sides with negative expected value. It’s how they print money, just like running a craps or baccarat table.
🛠️ What Should You Do with a -EV or 0EV Alert?
These alerts are not calls to action, but rather valuable signals. Here’s how to use them:
- ❌ Don’t chase steam when the value is gone
- ✅ Avoid making a bad wager just to be “on the sharp side”
- 🔁 Use in-play betting to possibly middle or find value
- 🧘♂️ Sometimes the best bet is no bet at all
Remember: avoiding a loss is nearly as valuable as cashing a win.
📣 The Sharp Plays Philosophy
TSP content is not about blind tailing or fading. It’s about:
Informing you of market action and betting intelligence
Then letting you decide what to do with it.
That includes recognizing when the sharp move already happened, and it’s too late to act.
🌲 Final Thought: Don’t Miss the Forest for the Trees
When a -EV or 0EV angle gets posted pregame, some bettors dismiss it:
“Why post it if there’s no edge?”
Because there is value in knowing what not to bet. These alerts help you:
- Avoid steam-chasing
- Understand line movement
- Identify inflated prices
- Stay disciplined
The betting forest is filled with tempting traps. If you focus only on the trees (i.e., the “hot side”), you’ll get swallowed up.
📌 Discipline, context, and information management are what separate winners from losers.
Use every alert wisely — even the ones that don’t scream “bet me.”
Good luck out there!
~ The Sharp Plays