The Sharp Plays Newsletter 2023 Week #14


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Recap & Week Ahead – TSP Live December subscriptions just opened today and I could not help but be amazed that we are already at this point in the year. December is my ABSOLUTE favorite month of sports. The holiday season combined with action from all sports and especially BOWL ACTION (always a favorite of mine) is just incredible! I can’t wait!

Content overall performed well last week. TSP Live Radar had a winning record, and the TSP Live sharp alerts went 2-2. The drag were my parlays and my teaser. The good news was I FINALLY cashed some pizza props and that helped make for a fun Thanksgiving! The public did incredibly well in NFL so perhaps the week ahead will bring some public regression…and that could setup for the dogs…and I am shocked to say the OVERs in the NFL. The UNDERs have lately become a public darling that has printed money especially on prime time. Although, the rare Book Need OVERs did well this past weekend going 2-0! Here’s to a great week ahead!

TSP LIVE DECEMBER SUBSCRIPTIONS ARE NOW OPEN!!!! If you are looking for expanded premium sports content, don’t forget to check out TSP Live! Signup is at https://TSP.Live/tsp-live. Options ranging from 7 days, 1 month, 6 months, and up to 1 year are available.

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As always thank you for your support through the premium sports and trading content! Your subscriptions support everything I do at The Sharp Plays (free & paid), expand the content and technology utilized, and support things important to TSP. I am continually grateful for your support! The Sharp Plays would not be here without you!

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Now let’s get into this week’s action…

Early Sharp Buy (5-7-1 for -1.6 units) – In this section of the newsletter I look for what wager is seeing the cleanest and largest sharp buy at this point in the week. The section is graded based on the result of the play here, however this play can be used for a few things. We have seen situations whereby the newsletter’s early buy sees counter buying later in the week. These reverse buys have shown to be VERY STRONG and profitable to follow. So, keep the below game and wager in mind as the week goes along, even if you aren’t interested in the action now.

For the week ahead, the Early Sharp Buy is Oregon -9.5 over Washington. It was a close game during the regular season, but the sharps expect the conference championship version to be a blowout! ESB is Oregon -9.5!

Early Algorithm Look (5-7-0 for -3.8 units) – The section here is quite simple. I run my favorite NFL & NCAAF side & totals algorithms each week. I then post the play below that shows the most value out of the four programs.

The algorithm is showing the largest value this week on Cincinnati/Jacksonville OV38. Likely due to the performance of UNDERs and the success of the public betting those UNDERs, especially on prime time games, these totals are getting to incredibly low levels and that is probably why the algorithm is finding value here this week. Let’s see some scoring on Monday Night!

Don’t forget to visit for the latest in TSP couture! Profits will be donated to charity as follows…

100% of all profits from any Robin Hood Club related purchases (two t-shirts with “RHC4LIFE” on them) will be donated to St. Jude Children’s Hospital on a monthly basis.

50% of all profits from all other merchandise (non-RHC t-shirt, both hats, both the TSP Pint Glass and TSP coffee mug) will be donated to a different charity each month.

I hope you enjoy the items and they add a little something fun to your wardrobe or home decor…while at the same time benefitting some great charities along the way! Who doesn’t want to drink from their TSP Pint glass when they are celebrating the next big win…or wear that TSP Essential T-shirt on a big NFL Sunday?!?!

Enjoy and thanks for the support! –

My Handicapping (7-5-1 for +1.5 units) – I am going with Arizona +5.5 over Pittsburgh. There has been some sharp buying on Arizona which made me like this a bit more. Bottom line is Pittsburgh is an outrageously lucky team…and luck eventually runs out. Too lose the yardage battle in every game (up to this week) but have a good winning record is unheard of and a statistical anomaly. I don’t think Arizona is some incredible team, they have plenty of issues, but Pittsburgh’s record and ATS success is hiding a ton of issues under the hood. Eventually, as we often will see, those issues will show themselves and Pittsburgh will see regression. Whether that is this week or another week is anyone’s guess. I just have confidence that it will happen and Pittsburgh will be exposed for the pathetic offense that they have…and the luck will run out. I think Arizona would be the perfect team to surprise Pittsburgh, especially given the public is overlooking them in a decent fashion this week, plus it is a week that we might see some dog progression to the mean after how hot the chalks were this past weekend (almost breaking a record if Minnesota would have covered on MNF). Go Cardinals +5.5!

The Sharp Plays News & Reviews – Don’t forget the Free Analytics at are updated on a daily basis. Just visit the website and click the “Analytics” link in the website menu and then the “Free Analytics” link on the drop down to view the new tables and content!

My Two Cents – I have been debating this for a bit, and I think I will bringing the TSP Newsletter content into the Go Fast And Win podcast on a weekly basis. The good of this is the Go Fast And Win podcast will be a weekly thing throughout the entire year! So, unlike the TSP Newsletter, which would be ending in about five weeks until next football season, the Go Fast And Win podcast will be year round…and potentially with multiple episodes in busy weeks…like for the bowl games or for March Madness.

Like anything, when I make changes there are those who welcome the change and there will be those who are saddened by it. The nature of sports betting and technology…two things which come together here at The Sharp Plays…require you to be ever changing and ever evolving. As such, The Sharp Plays content is continually expanding and being cut back. It expands in new areas of evolution, and it then gets cut back in old areas because things become obsolete or the new evolutions take over the same content. Time also becomes an issue because there is only so much time in the day. Which means things which do not perform or are not worth the time should be cut back for things which are worth the time.

The Go Fast And Win podcast is very new and it is evolving rapidly in the technology I use to put it together. There are still issues to be overcome, like learning the audio software inside and out so I can optimize the listening experience…versus having some audio blips here and there. However, the podcast format would allow me to cover something like the TSP Newsletter in a short 5-8 minute segment, including promotional TSP ads, My Handicapping which proudly is winning this year, and My Two Cents as well. Not to mention, few people seem to enjoy reading anymore.

So, today’s issue may be the last TSP Newsletter, but like any TSP content, while it may be gone, it will not be forgotten…and it could always come back if the need arises. I sincerely thank you for reading the TSP Newsletter the past four years. I will miss it, although the time needed can be tough in busy weeks, but at the same time I am very excited for the much more dynamic experience that an audio podcast can provide.

I know, there are some who don’t subscribe to or listen to podcasts, but here’s the reality to keep following…you don’t have to do anything special. When I post a weekly episode (which I would announce in email, Twitter/X and Telegram) you don’t need to subscribe or do anything overly complex. You would simply visit the website at your convenience, scroll down and press the play button for the most recent episode…or whatever episode you wanted to hear. You could listen on your car’s bluetooth, while on the toilet, or throw in your AirPods and go for a walk. You could probably walk to your mailbox and back for the time listening to an episode will take…and you will get all the same information that you read here today. So, I will be giving it a shot and seeing how it goes next week. Oh and let’s be honest, other than My Handicapping, this season there isn’t much redeeming value to the newsletter when it comes to selections. Sure, there is always My Two Cents which is a fan favorite…but don’t worry…I will have plenty to rant, rave and bitch about in audio format on a regular basis. Spoken word is always a lot more fun for a rant than written word! Thanks again for joining me this week and through the years!

From one of my favorite movies, and which is where I got the name for the podcast…

That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! Stay safe out there! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it! 😉🤙🍀

Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays