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Recap & Week Ahead – We survived! It was quite a busy Week #1. We didn’t even have NFL and as I said to TSP Live subscribers on Saturday, “I felt like I was in a tornado.” The chaos was a lot of fun! Should be a fun week ahead now that we get NFL too! Grab your helmets! LOL
The first full week of NCAAF performed well! In the free content on Twitter & Telegram, both +EV sharp reports cashed for a 2-0 result. The 0EV report on Bowling Green did not hit the in-play target. In TSP Live, the TSP Live Radar went 9-7 for +1.7 units, the KB Consensus went 2-0 for +2.0 units, the Book Needs went 2-2 for -0.2 units, the In-Play Analytic went 4-3 for +3.7 units, there were no Premium or Just Missed Premium Plays, there were no Group Buys or Book Positions for the Oddsmaker’s Report and Hermes went 0-1 for -1.16 units. All in all, a winning week!
SEPTEMBER TSP LIVE & FMA SUBSCRIPTIONS are both PROFITABLE and it’s only September 6th. Don’t miss more of the fun! Signup at https://TSP.Live/tsp-live. Options ranging from 7 days up to 1 year are available. TSP Live Analytics members have access to analytics & content such as the TSP Live Radar, Real-time Book Needs, KB Consensus, Top Sharp Consensus, the Oddsmaker’s Report (including the new “known” bettor tracking), Hermes and the new In-Play Pricing analytic. On top of daily analytics access, TSP Live members get access to TSP Live Insider…which provides my exotics (teasers/parlays/rollovers which have provided over 300 units of profit since 2011) when I have one, discussion of strategy, early sharp buys and more! It is truly the Sports Information Buffet…and you have a front row seat! For more details or to signup for TSP Live Analytics click here or visit TSP.Live/tsp-live.
Quality TSP content doesn’t end with sports either! The Financial Market Analytics (FMA) subscription is chugging along in its third year, another profitable one, with the FMA Spotlight collecting cumulative returns in 2022 of +42.9% using passive targets and 65.7% using aggressive targets! FMA access is part of the All-Inclusive subscriptions, or can be purchased as a separate subscription each month. To signup, visit TSP.Live/fma.
As always thank you for your support on the paid content! Your paid content purchases that support everything I do at The Sharp Plays (free & paid), expands the content and technology utilized, and supports things important to me. I am continually grateful for your support! I would not be here without you.
Lastly, don’t forget about the TSP Telegram channels! There is a TSP Sports Channel, a TSP Trading Channel and a TSP Twitter Clone Channel. For details on each of the channels and how to join them, simply visit https://thesharpplays.com/tsp-telegram-channel/.
Now let’s get into this week’s action…
Early Sharp Buy (0-1-0 for -1.1 units) – In this section of the newsletter I look for what play is seeing the cleanest and largest sharp buy at this point in the week. The section is graded based on the result of the play here, however this play can be used for a few things. We have seen situations whereby the newsletter’s early buy sees counter buying later in the week. These reverse buys have shown to be a VERY STRONG and profitable follow. So, keep the below game in mind as the week goes along and let’s see what happens.
For the week ahead, the early sharp buy is on Northwestern -10. Duke rolled over Temple as we know, so there is a good chance this line is lower than it should be. Then we have Northwestern who beat a Nebraska team which few (understandably) respect. Could easily set the stage for Northwestern value and be the reason sharp money is biting.
Early Algorithm Look (1-0-0 for +1.0 units) – The section here is quite simple. I run my favorite NFL & NCAAF side algorithms and my favorite NFL & NCAAF totals algorithms each week. I then post the play showing the most value here.
For the week ahead, the early algorithm look is showing the largest value on Appalachian St/Texas A&M UN55. The scoring festival that everyone was watching with UNC/App St is likely leading this game to be higher than it should. The algorithm shows the total should be 51. So, we get an extra 4 points on this game at the current price.
My Handicapping (1-0 for +1.0 units) – I got the win last week taking SMU, let’s do it again this week. I am going to open Week #1 of the NFL season with an NFL selection. I am heading to Houston and am taking a wild shot on the Texans. It is purely a value play. I agree that Houston is nothing exciting, but I think the Colts are getting way too much credit here. Yes, the Colts are the better team, but let’s not anoint Matt Ryan as league MVP just yet. The guy was an elite QB…but that was a while ago. Sure, he didn’t have the best team in Atlanta and he gets an upgrade in coach and team, but I don’t see him being Kurt Warner at the Rams and lighting teams up all of a sudden.
When I saw this line I had it around -5.5. To see it at Houston +7 is too juicy for me to pass up. I am going to grab the hook too and take Houston +7.5 (-115). I think this one stays close with a possible garbage TD getting me the backdoor cover on Houston. Let’s see how she goes!
My Two Cents – The first two weeks of My Two Cents are pretty boring each year for long-time readers. The good news is you didn’t pay for this newsletter. 😉
My goal is to prevent at least one person from falling into the financial abyss that gambling can take you into…especially during the high excitement season of NFL. So, the first two issues always cover the same topics. There is a topic that is important to embrace…and I hope you will.
The topic I want to cover is betting reality. Too often bettors begin their journey with the belief that making money in sports is easy or at worst, relatively easy. I wish I knew how this belief gets rooted in so many gamblers…myself included. If I knew where it were rooted I could cut this betting cancer out before it takes hold in gamblers…and completely destroys their finances. When I started betting I thought winning would be relatively easy and that sports betting would be the solution to a leisurely and carefree life. I don’t know why I felt that way either as I look back on it. People walk into a casino ready to play craps or blackjack hoping to win, but not expecting to win. Nobody walks into a casino and says, “I am going to be a professional craps player.” However, far too large a majority of bettors walk into a sportsbook and think, I am going to make my living at this…or at least a nice second income. When you look at sports betting, the last thing you should think is “easy money”.
Perhaps all those touts or “alleged” professional bettors telling me when I was first starting out that it was easy. These folks sell you on the dream, and once someone buys into a dream, it is near impossible for them to ever let it go. These touts and boiler room operators show you pictures of boats, women, parties, oceanfront condos, cars and money. Once you are sucked into that being a possibility in your life through sports betting, you are willing to dedicate every dollar to chasing that dream. It’s the same method that these Nigerian scams use to reel in their victims. These are the scams that tell you they are some diplomat and need your help to hide money, usually tens of millions of dollars. If you help them you will get a cut of the money. To assist these conmen you have to pay some customs or bank fees for the multi-million dollar wire. Once you pay that first fee you are sucked in and they keep getting you to pay fee after fee. Even when many of the victims finally realize the dream they were sold was actually a nightmare, they are too far in and still keep paying fees anyway. Next thing they know, they’re broke and they can’t pay anymore fees. Yep, that’s how gambling works if you don’t have a grasp on the realities of it.
Last year I ranted on the topic of all these “professional” sports bettors who readily comment on Twitter or in the media, with their noses high in the air, at how great they are at betting sports! These same folks never post any strategy discussion, rarely if EVER post their wagers BEFORE the events and never offer content to their audience to let them in on their incredible talents. Why? You know why! As soon as they were to do it then the veil of their self-proclaimed sports betting god status would quickly disintegrate. At which point they would lose what they love most…the attention. I won’t mention any names, but there are several on Twitter who readily let you know how awesome they are at their “profession”. I guess they don’t realize people do book their bets and know how they really perform! LOL! You would piss yourself if you heard the annual net losses of many of the arrogant bastards you have come to know and love as “pros”.
I do enjoy how people attack me on Twitter for a variety of things. Yet, unlike the “professionals” I put all my content out there every day. I recap my content (free & paid) daily the following morning and have updated the records daily since 2011. Not to mention since June 1st, 2021 I now have a complete content log of everything I post that is updated daily as well. Show me one of those “professionals” that does the same thing. If you find a professional who won’t post his wagers and especially won’t track their content, realize he is simply a professional self-promoter. If any professional, tout or gambler indeed had quality content and performance, they would not hide it. Those folks would revel in it, they would flex on it, and they would eagerly track it to show off. If they don’t do those things, that should tell you all you need to know about their abilities. I am confident in what I do and I am not scared of transparency.
Anyway, I digress on the topic of these professional blowhards. Instead let me get back to my topic on betting reality. I don’t care if you follow me or not. Just remember that the best sharp bettors in existence will hit around 55% lifetime betting point spreads. Yes, 55%! Not 60, 65, 70%. Maybe they will have a blowout season for 60% on low volume (less than 250 wagers), but if you average it all out across all seasons, it’ll be around 55%…if they are one of the best. The best sharp bettors will lose multiple weeks and even months at a time. If I enter a losing streak for two weeks people will unfollow me on Twitter or discuss how awful the content is that I post. These folks will then go in search of better content on Twitter and elsewhere. I will see them leave, but fortunately I have a good memory. It’s funny how many of those I see unfollow me will inevitably return 1,2,3 months later. These people leave to go in search of the Holy Grail of sports betting information only to realize it doesn’t exist. I wish I could hear their inner voice in that moment when they say, as much as I hate that damn TSP, he’s still got the best content out there! I have haters who take any chance they can to say something negative to their followers about me…and here’s the funny thing…those sane haters are reading this newsletter right now! I thank them because it is a testament to what I do and the content I offer. If everything I did sucked, the haters wouldn’t be reading this and spending time to hate me, you wouldn’t be reading this and nobody would care enough about The Sharp Plays to even bother hating it. So, to the followers and the haters, thank you for your loyalty and support!
I am not arrogant or pompous about most things in life, but when it comes to my content, yes I am! It is the best and most transparent out there. Whether you like me or not, whether you follow me or not, just let me leave you with one thing. If you never listen to another thing I say, please listen to this…sports betting is HARD. Even for the sharpest of football bettors…there will be great weeks, and plenty of awful weeks too. In the end and when they dust settles, if they did it right, there will be a nice pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Gold that they ground out over a season of ups and downs. Remember, you can’t have the pleasure without the pain. Be ready for bad days, bad weeks, and even bad months. Have discipline, good bankroll management and patience. Grind those profits and if you are stressing each win or loss, you are betting WAY TOO MUCH and are doomed before you even start, trust me! Most gamblers are not built for sports betting to be an income generator for them. If it were simple to be a PROFITABLE sports bettor then everyone would do it…because a vast majority of people want to be professional bettors. It just isn’t that easy and that’s why the LEGITIMATE professional bettors are so few and so very far between. If someone unprompted tells you they are a professional bettor, chances are that they are just another douche who can’t accept betting reality…and their own reality.
I know as someone who provides a paid sports betting content platform that I probably shouldn’t say everything that I just said. I should say how that by following TSP Live you can start with a 5 unit bankroll and will be on the path to making gambling your main source of income in a few short months. How it will be easy as you experience week after week of profit, month after month of blowout wins…collecting from your book. By December your 5 unit bankroll will be 150 units…AT LEAST!!!! How within those few months you will likely quit your job and just bet professionally for a living. If you believe it, send me an email because I have a friend in Nigeria who has $50,000,000 and needs your help getting it out of the country. You just have to cover the fees and you’ll get 10% of the amount for your assistance! LOL!!!
If it’s too good to be true, it ALWAYS is. Nothing good in life comes easy. Yes, of course you can be another professional bettor, and even earn all or part of your living from it. Just be ready to bust your ass to do it and understand the chance of you failing is exponentially larger than the chance of you succeeding. If you are crying or overly emotional after one losing bet, a bad week or bad stretch…let that be the signal that your betting reality is a little out of whack and needs adjustment. If you can grasp betting reality, you will then have the proper expectation of performance. You will then understand that sports betting is not printing money. If you want to print money, get a job with the Federal Reserve or US Treasury.
That’ll close out this week’s newsletter for me! Thanks for giving the newsletter here a read today! Stay safe out there! I am always open to any feedback you may have. I might not listen to it, LOL, but I am open to it!
Good luck in your action!
~ The Sharp Plays