The hot topic lately: the public is CRUSHING it across all sports.
Since mid-January, Joe Public has been lighting up sportsbooks like a Christmas tree — and it’s got everyone asking…
“Should I bet with the public right now?”
Let’s unpack this with insight, strategy, and a dose of cold-blooded honesty.
🏈 A Word from the Front Lines
I spoke with a sportsbook director from one of the largest offshore operations this weekend. He said:
“If it weren’t for a solid Super Bowl, the start to 2020 would be our worst in 10 years.”
Let that sink in.
So how do you approach the market when the public is in control and the sharps are taking it on the chin?
🤔 Should You Bet With the Public?
Theoretically? Yes.
In gambling, riding the hot hand can pay off short term.
But as a value-based bettor, betting with the public does not compute.
Why? Because 99% of the time, betting with the public means betting against value.
📉 Here’s why:
- The public pounds a side →
- The line shifts to draw contrarian action →
- That creates value against the public side.
So now you’re faced with an ugly choice:
- Bet with the public and knowingly take a bad number,
- Or bet against them and stand in front of the runaway train.
🧠 Should You Bet With the Sharps?
Also complicated.
Fundamentally? Yes — because you’re betting with value.
But right now? Value isn’t cashing tickets. So what’s the point of running into the fire?
📉 My Strategy: Sit Back & Wait
Here’s what I do when value’s not hitting and the public is feasting:
❝The book doesn’t require us to bet every day…
I’ll bet light when there’s an edge but market concern.
I’ll pass entirely when no edge exists.
And I’ll press HARD when the market turns back in my favor.❞
— The Sharp Plays
I’m not chasing wins by betting into bad numbers. I’m sitting out — and waiting for the market to flip. Because it always does.
📊 Timing Your Entry with the Index
One tool I rely on heavily in times like this? The TSP Index.
Once it turns up and gets above zero, it’s my signal that sharp money is coming back in control. When that happens, I’m back in action — hard.
Until then? ❌ I’m not chasing. ❌ I’m not guessing.
✅ I’m protecting my bankroll and planning my attack.
🛑 The Case for the “Pizza Money” Bet
I get it — we’re gamblers. We love action. Sitting out feels like torture.
But that’s where “pizza money bets” come in. These are small-stake wagers (0.2–0.3 units) that:
- Keep you engaged,
- Give you something to sweat,
- But won’t burn your bankroll.
So if you just have to bet… do it small. Stay in the game, but don’t bleed out chasing a trend that’s not sustainable.
🔄 The Cycle Always Turns
Make no mistake: the public ALWAYS gives it back.
It’s a feature of the ecosystem — not a bug.
I’ve seen this script play out over and over again:
- The public runs hot,
- Sharps bleed,
- Degenerates abandon value,
- The market flips,
- The public loses it all — and then some.
🧘 Patience, young grasshopper. Betting is not oxygen. We can survive without it.
🧠 Final Thought: Choose Discipline Over Action
If you stay patient, disciplined, and wait for the edge to return, you’ll be in position to attack when it counts.
Don’t burn your stack betting into a market that’s upside down. Don’t chase public heat just because it’s working right now.
And don’t forget — when sharp sides return to form, they’ll hit harder and faster than anything you’ve seen on the public side.
Good luck in your action,
~ The Sharp Plays