A Lesson in Patience, Fortitude, and Long-Term Thinking
Originally posted to the TSP Telegram Trading Channel on August 4th, 2023
📜 Disclaimer: View Here
🧠 Why This Matters (And It’s Not Just About Stocks)
I’m posting this here not just because of the trade—but because the lessons carry over perfectly to sports betting. Especially during football season, when emotions run high and people expect fast results.
Short-term losses do not define long-term success.
💥 The DKNG Trade: A Real-Time Case Study
On January 3rd, 2022, I bought DraftKings (DKNG) stock at $28.06.
Fast forward to August 4th, 2023:
- DKNG jumped +12.54% in a single session, closing at $33.75
- My position gained +20.27% over 19 months
- Over that same period, the S&P 500 (SPY) lost -6.0%
📈 Result: My DKNG position outperformed SPY by +26.3%
But wait—it gets better.
📉 When the Stock Tanked… I Doubled Down
While DKNG collapsed last year, I dollar cost averaged and added more shares at $13.57, which lowered my average entry to $20.82.
👉 My true ROI at $33.75? +62.2%
That portion won’t reflect in public tracking (since I didn’t post it on Telegram), but it’s important because it illustrates one thing:
I never lost faith in the trade.
🤡 The Critics Were Loud… But Short-Sighted
As DKNG dropped last year, my inbox filled with 20+ emails calling me out:
- “You’re chasing good money after bad.”
- “This trade is hopeless.”
- “DKNG is a dead stock.”
But I explained (and stood firm):
I know the gambling industry. Especially sports gambling.
Sportsbooks like DraftKings bleed cash up front to acquire customers. Then they scale back spending, keep those clients, and profit massively over time.
📣 “A good drug dealer doesn’t need marketing once his product is out there.”
And gambling? It’s one hell of a product.
I knew what was coming. But those who lacked vision bailed. They sold at losses, abandoned the trading channel, and moved on. The result? They missed the reward.
🧠 The Core Message: Focus on the Long Game
This isn’t about DKNG.
This is about what separates winners from losers in sports betting and investing:
- Quitters panic in the red.
- Pros stay the course.
If you’re constantly judging results on a daily, weekly, or even monthly basis, you will always fall short. That’s not a strategy—it’s a recipe for emotional disaster.
🎯 A Personal Story: The Long Road to a Six-Figure Parlay
- I started betting offshore in 1993—wagering $5 and $10 bets while underage
- It wasn’t until 2001 that I finally wagered $5,000 and $10,000 on a single game
- It took until 2008—15 years—before I hit my first six-figure parlay
That parlay came through after years of:
- Losing
- Learning
- Adapting
- And refusing to quit
🗣️ Final Thoughts: Don’t Be a Mental Midget
Success—real, lasting success—does not come fast. It comes from:
- Discipline
- Patience
- Fortitude
- And getting back up after you fail
This goes for stocks, options, sports betting, and everything else worth doing.
“Don’t rush greatness. Be patient. Stay disciplined. And don’t be a spineless mental midget.”
To close, I’ll borrow from Teddy Roosevelt:
“It is not the critic who counts… the credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena… who strives valiantly… who errs… and who knows the triumph of high achievement. Who, at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly…”
🎲 Good luck in your trades—and in your betting.
💪 Stay strong. Stay sharp. Stay the course.