Does CLV Matter??

March 22, 2023

💡 What Is CLV?

Let’s start with the basics.

CLV = Closing Line Value.
It’s the difference between the number you bet and the number the line closes at.

For example:

  • You bet +8
  • The line closes at +5
  • That’s +3 CLV—you beat the market by 3 points

Sounds great, right? You got a better price than the public and maybe even the sharps.

But here’s the truth…

😐 CLV ≠ Profit

A lot of professional bettors love to flex their CLV as a sign of market intelligence:

“Look at how much CLV I got!”
“I moved the line!”
“I’m betting like a syndicate!”

Cool story. But here’s the problem…

If your ROI (Return on Investment) is negative, who gives a shit?

You could pull 75 points of CLV in a week and still be -3% ROI.
CLV looks nice on paper. But at the end of the day…

The only three letters that matter in sports betting are R.O.I.

📉 The Real Relationship Between CLV and ROI

To be fair, there is a correlation between +CLV and long-term success.

  • Bettors who consistently beat the closing line tend to show positive ROI
  • It shows you’re making sharp bets ahead of market moves

BUT… studies have also shown this:

👉 +CLV does not guarantee +ROI
👉 You can beat the line consistently and still lose money

So, when someone spends all day bragging about their CLV but won’t show you their ROI? That’s a red flag.

🤔 A Simple Test for the “CLV Flexers”

The next time a handicapper or “pro” starts chirping about their amazing CLV:

Ask them this:

“What’s your ROI over that same stretch?”

If they dodge the question, change the subject, or give you vague answers—run.

Anyone proud of their performance will show both numbers. Not just one.

🔎 Want Proof? Try This Exercise

If you’re bored and want to prove this to yourself, here’s a quick way:

  1. Go back through the previous day’s lines
  2. Track the line moves:
    • Team A opens -8 → closes -10
    • Total opens 150 → closes 145
  3. See how those line moves performed
    • Did -8 cover the spread?
    • Did the total stay under 150?

Do that for a handful of days. You’ll quickly see:

Line movement helps—but it’s not gospel.
CLV helps—but it’s not the Holy Grail.

✅ The Bottom Line

  • Try to get CLV—of course. It’s a good practice.
  • Avoid chasing bad numbers—always.
  • But don’t obsess over CLV like it’s the secret to eternal betting success.

🎯 If you’re not making money, it doesn’t matter how early you got the number.

ROI is king.
CLV is a tool—not the trophy.

That’s it for today. Stay sharp, question everything, and as always—
🍀 Good luck in your action!