A Reality Check on Professional Sports Betting & Monetization
The comment comes up all the time when it comes to the sale of sports selections:
🤔 “If someone’s that good at betting, why don’t they just bet and make a fortune? Why sell picks?”
Here’s my response…
If someone’s in this game to make money—why not do both? Betting and selling selections are just two different ways to monetize the same winning angles. That’s not a contradiction, that’s capitalism.
😤 Anger vs. Logic
I get where the question comes from. But let’s be real: that mindset isn’t rooted in logic—it’s rooted in resentment toward services, handicappers, and anyone who charges for their betting insights.
Instead of speculation, let’s look at the math. Because the numbers tell the whole damn story.
📊 Real Numbers: TSP Portfolio Performance
Let’s walk through a real-world example using TSP Portfolio stats since launch (January 1, 2023):
- 📈 Lifetime ROI: +18%
- 📈 2024 ROI: +11%
- 🎯 Total Bets Tracked: 1,167 wagers
- 💰 Total Net Profit: +35.38 units
Now let’s apply this to a pro bettor wagering $5,000 per 0.1 units (average TSP Portfolio wager = 0.17u, so avg bet = $8,500).
📅 Total Profit from Betting:
- 35.38 units = 353.8 x $5,000 = $1,769,000
Just betting. No selling. That’s nearly $1.8M in raw profit.
🛒 Now Let’s Add Sales…
What if that same bettor sells their picks after placing their own bets?
Assume:
- $100/month subscription
- 1,000 subscribers
- That’s $100,000/month in added revenue
🗓️ We’re in August → that’s 8 months in 2024 = $800,000
Add 2023’s 12 months = $1.2M
📦 Total from sales: $2,000,000
💼 Combined Earnings:
- 🧾 Wagering Income: $1,769,000
- 🛍️ Selection Sales: $2,000,000
- ✅ TOTAL: $3,769,000
Let that sink in. Why wouldn’t a smart bettor do both?
💡 “Why Not Just Bet Bigger?”
Great question. Here’s why that logic breaks down:
Let’s say you scale up to $50,000 per 0.1 units instead of $5K.
- That makes a 1.0 unit wager $500,000
- Can you consistently get $500K down on WNBA, Olympic soccer, or preseason NFL? Hell no.
- Even $50K on smaller markets like ATP Montreal or early-week college football is a challenge
At some point, no matter how sharp you are, you hit a ceiling on how much you can bet. The limit is market liquidity, book restrictions, and how many outs you have.
So what’s the answer? Leverage the action you can get with content sales.
🔁 Multiple Monetization Streams = Smart Betting Business
Selling selections isn’t just about “easy money.” It’s smart business:
- You monetize your betting edge
- You diversify income in a world where books are clamping down harder than ever
- You allow supporters who can’t bet like pros to get access to top-tier intel
So yeah—maybe you can’t bet $500K on a WNBA game. But you can bet your max and turn that edge into content others are happy to pay for.
And that, my friends, is a perfect win-win.
🎤 Final Word
So next time someone asks, “Why sell picks if you’re so good?”, the answer is simple:
Because I can. Because I already bet it. And because I’m not leaving millions on the table out of some weird moral stance.
🧠 Smart betting isn’t just about picks. It’s about strategy, scalability, and monetizing edge any way you can.
Don’t hate the player. Hate the game.