The following article was a “My Two Cents” commentary from this season’s TSP Newsletter. However, I thought it would be good to have it on the website given it is a topic that comes up all the time. Since February is a slower content month, I figured I would create individual articles for the website and for future reference using this football season’s “My Two Cents”. So, each Wednesday in February I will be posting an article here.
🌱 Let’s Talk About Hedging!
A Level-Headed Look at One of Betting’s Most Misunderstood Tools
Last week we talked parlays… naturally, that led to a flurry of questions about hedging. Is it smart? Is it weak? Should you do it every time? Never?
Let’s clear the fog.
No fluff — just straight talk on when, why, and how I hedge… if I hedge at all.
🤔 First Off… Do I Like Hedging?
Nope. Not really.
Why?
Because hedging eats into your edge.
If I’ve done the work, if the spot has value, if I believe in the position — then hedging dilutes my ROI and undercuts the strategy.
It’s like bailing on a good trade in the stock market just before it takes off.
That said — there are specific, situational reasons where hedging becomes smart. Strategic, even.
📉 How Often Do I Hedge?
Honestly?
Only about 10-15% of the time.
In 85-90% of exotic spots (parlays, rollovers, etc.), I’m ride or die.
So, when do I hedge?
🧮 When to Hedge: My Two Golden Rules
1️⃣ Your Week/Month Is in the Red
If it’s been a rough patch and I’m sitting on a big potential win, then hedging makes a lot of sense. Even just securing some guaranteed cash back helps me avoid compounding losses.
🎯 Real-life example:
Two weeks ago I hedged a parlay because the week had been flat. The hedge locked in a winning weekend regardless of the parlay result.
2️⃣ You Got a Little Too Degenerate 😬
I’m a degenerate at heart. I get it.
Sometimes I set up rollovers, where I start with a straight bet and roll those winnings into a big exotic play. If that parlay is set to return 15–20+ units, I might hedge — not because I doubt the play, but because I overleveraged myself emotionally or financially.
Another common situation:
You find yourself “keyed” to one team across multiple parlays. That team is now your entire Sunday sweat. If you can’t stomach the pressure — hedge enough to cover all three parlays and pay for the next batch.
💰 How Much Do I Hedge?
There’s no single formula, but here’s what I usually do based on the situation:
🔴 If It’s Been a Rough Week:
➡️ Hedge 50% of the payout
This locks up a nice return without killing upside.
🟢 If It’s a Good Week (But I Overexposed):
➡️ Hedge 2x the parlay risk
If I wagered 1 unit, I’ll hedge for 2 units — covering the risk and leaving one unit for the next parlay attempt.
That way I don’t kill my edge, but I also sleep at night.
🧠 Hedging Is Personal — Not Mathematical
Here’s the bottom line:
Hedging is a feel-based decision.
It’s not about what I would do.
It’s about what you are comfortable with.
If the thought of watching a 10-unit payday ride on one team gives you an ulcer?
👉 HEDGE.
If you’re in a groove and love the spot?
👉 Ride it out.
Don’t overcomplicate this. There’s no perfect answer, only the one that keeps you disciplined, calm, and mentally sharp.
🌿 So, Is Hedging for Gardeners?
Sure.
But sometimes gardeners make money too.
And in high-leverage moments, smart bettors know when to pull out the shears.
🧾 Summary: The Sharp Plays Hedging Philosophy
✅ I hedge only when needed
✅ I let performance (week/month) guide the decision
✅ I hedge more when overexposed or keyed too hard to one team
✅ I usually hedge for 50% of the payout or 2x my initial risk
✅ I stay away from “always hedge” or “never hedge” dogma
✅ I ride or die ~85% of the time
🎯 Final Word:
The next time you’re staring down the barrel of a juicy parlay payout…
Ask yourself:
- What’s my recent performance?
- Am I overexposed emotionally?
- Can I handle the sweat?
Then make your move — hedge or ride — and don’t look back.
Good luck in your action!
– The Sharp Plays