What 11 Years of Data Reveal About When the Pros Get Paid — and When the Public Bleeds the Most
Every bettor’s heard it: “Saturdays are for the public,” or “Sharps kill it on Sundays.” But is it true? I decided to dig into 11 years of betting performance data across all major sports — NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NCAAB, NHL, MLB, soccer, and tennis — from one global sportsbook. I used filters to clean up noise and focused only on accounts rated “public” vs. “sharp.” The results? Pretty damn eye-opening.
Let’s break it down. 📉📈
📅 Overall ROI Snapshot (All Days & Holidays Combined)
| Group | ROI |
|---|---|
| Public | -5.4% |
| Sharp | +4.7% |
🧠 Key Takeaway: 94% of bettors fall into the public category. That means sportsbooks are printing money with a 5.4% edge over 94% of their customer base.
Isn’t it funny how scared most books are of the 6% of sharps — even though they’re drowning in cash from the other 94%?
🎄 Holiday Anomaly: A Curious Flip
For whatever reason, U.S. holidays have seen a sharp deviation from norm (data from 2017–present):
| Group | ROI |
|---|---|
| Public | +1.6% |
| Sharp | +0.2% |
WTF is going on here? Maybe it’s holiday hangovers? Family distractions? Dumb luck? Whatever it is, it’s consistent across New Year’s, MLK Day, Presidents Day, Easter, Memorial Day, July 4th, Labor Day, Veterans Day, Thanksgiving, Christmas Eve/Day, and NYE. 🤷♂️
📅 ROI by Day of the Week
(2010–present, all sports included)
| Day | Public ROI | Sharp ROI |
|---|---|---|
| Monday | -7.2% | +8.9% |
| Tuesday | -5.3% | +2.7% |
| Wednesday | -4.2% | +0.6% |
| Thursday | -3.5% | +2.8% |
| Friday | -5.1% | +2.4% |
| Saturday (All) | -3.9% | +2.7% |
| Football Saturdays | -4.4% | +4.8% |
| NCAAB Saturdays | -6.1% | +5.2% |
| Non-NFL/NCAAB Sat | -0.2% | -2.6% 🧨 |
| Sunday (All) | -6.9% | +11.5% 🚀 |
| NFL Sundays | -5.4% | +8.8% |
🥇 Top Sharp Days (Best to Worst)
- Sunday (+11.5%)
- Monday (+8.9%)
- NCAAB Saturdays (+5.2%)
- Football Saturdays (+4.8%)
- Thursday (+2.8%)
- Tuesday (+2.7%)
- Saturday (All) (+2.7%)
- Friday (+2.4%)
- Wednesday (+0.6%)
- Non-Football/NCAAB Saturdays (❌ -2.6%)
🧊 Top Public Days (Best of the Worst)
- Non-Football/NCAAB Saturdays (-0.2%)
- Thursday (-3.5%)
- Saturday (All) (-3.9%)
- Wednesday (-4.2%)
- Football Saturdays (-4.4%)
- Friday (-5.1%)
- Tuesday (-5.3%)
- NCAAB Saturdays (-6.1%)
- Sunday (All) (-6.9%)
- Monday (-7.2%)
🧠 Strategy Insight: Sunday is King… but Why?
Sundays and Mondays are where sharps dominate.
And here’s the kicker — Sunday isn’t just about ROI… it’s about volume too.
Let’s say:
- Monday has +8.9% ROI on 50 plays
- Sunday has +11.5% ROI on 1000 plays
Even if Monday’s ROI is high, Sunday delivers more cold hard cash thanks to the larger betting volume — especially during the NFL season.
🌀 Volume × ROI = Absolute Profit Power
🤯 Why Do These Patterns Exist?
Truth is — nobody really knows.
Could it be Friday night partying impacts sharp model assumptions on Saturday games?
Do casual bettors show up in droves on holidays and Saturdays?
Do sportsbooks shift risk profiles across the week?
Your guess is as good as mine — but the data doesn’t lie.
🔮 Closing Thoughts
- Sharp bettors CRUSH on Sundays and Mondays
- Holidays weirdly soften sharp/public edge gaps
- Non-Football/NCAAB Saturdays are a rare weak spot for sharps
- Public bettors lose money across the board — some days just hurt a little less
So while there may be no proven theory behind why these trends exist, the results are real. I’ll be integrating this data into my TSP Daily strategy going forward — and expanding the breakdown over time.
If nothing else, this assessment reminds us that when you bet matters almost as much as what you bet.
Thanks for reading and good luck in your action!
~ TSP