Chasing the Dragon! (Not About Heroin)

I have talked about this topic before in my “Don’t Be A Frankie!!” article. So, it might be redundant, but the number of gamblers I see doing this season after season makes it imperative I say something. As a new football season gets underway, please don’t make the following LETHAL mistake in your betting. The below is something I brought up in TSP Live Insider, but will expand upon here.

What’s the mistake?? Trying to avoid losing! I know it sounds silly, of course none of us wants to lose, but when a gambler has a losing day or week the thought running through their mind often becomes…”I need to change my strategy.” The bettor feels “I had a losing day/week, that’s not supposed to happen. So, I must have done something wrong and now I have to correct it by changing my entire betting strategy.” It’s an awful mistake. Even the best gamblers and the best strategies/systems/models have losing days, weeks and even months! It’s unavoidable. What the novice gambler does when they have a losing week is often to completely change what they do the next week in the hope it will bring the wins. Often, just holding course will bring the wins. Gambling is nothing more than a series of regressions (losing streaks) and progressions (winning streaks). A successful gambler simply has slightly more progressions than regressions and that’s how they grind out a profit. I’ll explain what I am talking about using a pretend situation, but one while will play itself out in some capacity this football season…

Let’s pretend the TSP Live Radar went 10-0 for the past weekend, but you use KB Consensus and in the same week we will pretend KB Consensus went 0-3. What are you going to do next week? The novice gambler will likely feel they missed out on great TSP Live Radar profits. So, for the next week, to avoid missing any more TSP Live Radar profits…the novice bettor will leave the KB Consensus analytic behind and jump to TSP Live Radar analytic. What will happen the upcoming week? We all know how this story plays out because every gambler has tried to constantly chase the hot streak and experienced the result…or lack thereof. What will likely happen is that for the upcoming week the KB Consensus will now progress and go 5-1 and TSP Live Radar will regress going 4-6. What happened to you? You went 0-3 one week using KB Consensus…but instead of riding the ups and downs of a winning analytical tool…you tried to prevent losing and moved from KB Consensus to the TSP Live Radar. When you did, the very next week the TSP Live Radar went 4-6 while your original analytical tool, KB Consensus, went 5-1!


By chasing the hot hand, over two weeks of TSP Live you went 4-9 (0-3 with KB Consensus and then 4-6 the next week when you moved to the TSP Live Radar)!

HOWEVER, for those who did not try to chase the hot streak over this pretend two week period…they went 14-6 betting the TSP Live Radar or 5-4 betting the KB Consensus! The subscribers who didn’t jump around, who rode the ups and downs are BOTH profitable after two weeks!

Instead of grinding profits, by jumping around, you…with access to the same TSP Live content…went 4-9 by trying to chase the hot hand! You couldn’t accept losing so you tried to find the content which would never lose. The theory itself is a losing proposition.

Consistency to a strategy is ESSENTIAL in sports betting. When these handicappers out there advertise they are 24-3 the last 27 selections. Assuming they are telling the truth…IT IS TOO LATE TO JUMP ON NOW! You missed the run and you are closer to big regression than you are to the run continuing in the same fashion.

The “Sports Information Buffet” that is TSP Live has a lot of strong content (Records). Every bit of content will have good weeks and bad weeks. In the end, every bit of TSP content tends to perform quite well. So, don’t try to avoid the bad weeks by changing your strategy after a losing day or losing week. Likely nothing is broken in your strategy, it is just the ebb and flow of professional gambling. Accept losses as part of the process and stick to your plan. Nothing will ever guarantee wins, but chasing hot streaks definitely won’t help!

Good luck!