🏈 How Much Should You Bet on Football Futures?
TSP Bankroll Strategy for NFL & NCAAF Futures
It’s that time of year again—football season! And with a new season comes the much-anticipated TSP Futures Report, where we break down win totals, conference, division, and championship futures.
But first:
💭 “How much of my bankroll should I actually tie up in futures?”
Let’s answer that.
💰 First: The 100-Unit Bankroll Explained
We’ll save the deep dive into bankroll theory for another time, but here’s the basic structure:
- 🎯 100-unit bankroll: Take whatever total you’re setting aside to bet—$1,000, $10,000, $100K—and divide it by 100.
- This gives you your per unit wager.
- $1,000 bankroll → $10/unit
- $10,000 bankroll → $100/unit
Why 100 units?
Because even sharp bettors—people betting with a true edge—will typically experience a 20 to 30 unit drawdown at least once or twice a year. It’s just math. It’s just variance.
So you want a bankroll structure that allows you to withstand cold streaks and keep grinding.
🎰 Think of it like playing a “99% payout” slot. That 1% edge will bleed you dry over time if you don’t have the edge—or the discipline.
📊 How Much of That Bankroll Goes to Futures?
Let’s assume the worst-case scenario:
A 30-unit drawdown hits right out of the gate. That leaves you with 70 units.
Now, if your goal is to grind back the losses, you don’t want to be down to your last 10–15 units. That’s a panic zone. Instead, you want at least double your lost units in reserve.
Here’s the breakdown:
- 🔹 100 unit bankroll
- 🔻 -30 units from a cold streak
- 🔐 Leave 60 units in reserve
- ✅ That leaves 10 units maximum for futures
📌 So the Rule:
✅ MAX: 10% (10 units) of your bankroll should be tied up in futures
👥 Exceptions: What If You Only Bet Futures?
If you’re a futures-only bettor, the rules change.
- You’re not grinding daily lines
- You’re playing long-view positions
In that case, it’s okay to tie up 25% to 30% of your bankroll in futures. But that’s a niche strategy, not the norm.
🎯 Why 10 Units Is Plenty for Futures
You don’t need 30 units to have fun with futures.
Most futures markets (especially Championship and Conference bets) pay 5-1 or better. That means:
- Just one or two winners from your 10-unit pool can lead to massive ROI
- You still have 90% of your bankroll free to bet daily and recover from any cold spells
⚖️ Balancing Futures Bets:
I personally break down my futures wagers into varying sizes:
- 🔸 0.3 units
- 🔸 0.5 units
- 🔸 1.0 unit
- 🔸 Occasionally 2.0 units (rare)
You don’t need to do ten 1-unit bets. You could have 90 futures at 0.1u and one monster at 1u—whatever fits your strategy.
🧠 Final Takeaway: Strategy = Survival
If you’re chasing futures with a bloated portion of your bankroll, you’re setting yourself up for failure—not freedom.
Stick to the 10% rule (unless you’re futures-only), and you’ll be able to:
- 📉 Survive cold streaks
- 🔄 Grind your way back
- 💥 Capitalize big when the right futures hit
🏁 Final Word
This approach isn’t sexy—but it’s smart.
It protects your downside, keeps you liquid, and positions you to profit long-term.
If you have questions, I’m here to help. Just reach out here.
Let’s crush another season—and cash those futures tickets! 🏆