I’ve highlighted the primary wagering angles in GREEN throughout this report. These represent the material wagers that stand out from sharp action. The rest is supplemental context for you to interpret and apply in your own analysis.
Well my friends, it’s that time of year again—football season is back with the first full week of action.
📊 Futures Market Overview
This has been the strangest futures market in at least the last five years. Why? Sharps seem less interested in traditional “outright winners” (conference champs, national titles, Super Bowl winners) and far more active in alternative markets—especially “To Make the Playoff.”
I even called up several other book contacts that work outside the three books I am directly connected with…just to see what they were getting. All of them said it was an odd year in the football futures market. Obviously I will monitor as the season goes along to look for additional opportunities.
- In the NFL, sharp money is typically spread across division odds, but this year there was no clean buy for the Super Bowl. Instead, sharp focus landed squarely on two divisional wagers.
- In NCAAF, the SEC market drew heavy attention and sharp volume—but not on any of the obvious teams you might expect. Sharps avoided the chalk and targeted mid-tier teams at bigger prices.
Rather than forcing looks where there isn’t meaningful action, I’ll stick to what sharps are actually betting. And truthfully, that gives us plenty of opportunities. I do expect more than usual to occur as we move into the season given the way this initial action played out.
🏈 NFL Futures
San Francisco +160 (to win NFC West) ✅ Primary Sharp Buy
Detroit +136 (to win NFC North) ✅ Close 2nd Sharp Buy
🎓 NCAAF Futures
SEC Conference Action:
Sharps avoided the top-tier teams and instead targeted value in the second tier:
Texas A&M +1800
Oklahoma +1800
Ole Miss +2000 (yes, I’m riding this one FOR SURE! LOL!)
South Carolina +3300
This indicates a clear belief that there’s little value in the favorites, and the bigger payoffs are where the edge lies.
🎯 To Make the Playoff
Tennessee +375
Louisville +350
South Carolina +525
SMU +400
Ohio State -325
Notice the correlation between South Carolina to make the playoff and taking a shot for them to win the SEC…albeit a LONG shot.
📉 / 📈 Season Win Totals
Most of the NCAAF win total markets have been hit a while ago leaving little value, but a few notable NFL spots have emerged:
- New England UNDER 8.5 (-125)
- Seattle OVER 7.5 (-160)
- Tennessee OVER 5.5 (-168) (Our boys are primed for progression! Sharps hit Tennessee hard last season to little success. Perhaps this will be the sharp darling with success in 2025-26)
✅ Final Thoughts
This is some of the strangest futures market action I’ve seen in the past 5–10 years. Sharps aren’t locking in outrights for either NFL or NCAAF. What does that mean?
- Chalks in Focus: Teams like Buffalo, Baltimore, and Kansas City perhaps are viewed as likely winners, but sharps don’t see value in their current prices.
- Waiting for Value: Instead of grabbing outrights now, sharps appear to be waiting for early-season movement to create better opportunities.
🏈 NFL Example
- Week 1: Buffalo vs. Baltimore
Why bet Baltimore or Buffalo at a neutral value price now when whoever loses this matchup could immediately become a value play. One loss doesn’t eliminate Super Bowl hopes, but the odds will likely move to a more favorable number after the public piles on the winner…making them the clear favorite to hoist the Lombardi Trophy this season.
🏟️ NCAAF Example
- Week 1: Texas vs. Ohio State
Same situation—both are top contenders to win the National Championship. Sharps will never bet a negative or neutral value. So, if you like one but don’t love the price, your only option is to wait. Whoever loses could present a sharp value play post-Week 1.
📌 Bottom Line: Sharps may be intentionally holding off because they know at least two top contenders will take an early loss, and not just early in the season, but both of these setups occurring in Week #1 for their respective league, creating value opportunities almost immediately.
I’ll be closely tracking this and will provide a futures update after Week 1 of NCAAF and then Week 1 of NFL in the TSP Live alerts.
Here’s to a profitable season ahead. 🍀
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