🎰 Betting FOMO, Frankie the Follower & the Fallacy of Chasing Heat
Back in 2019, I wrote an article called the “Sports Information Buffet”. The main theme? FOMO in sports betting. Bettors pile everything onto their plate out of fear they’ll miss the next big win. The result? Overleveraged, unfocused, and fragile betting.
But today… we’re going even deeper.
There’s an even worse type of bettor than the Buffet Bandit:
Meet Frankie the Follower — the guy who jumps from hot streak to hot streak thinking he’s cracked the system. Spoiler alert: he hasn’t.
🔥 Frankie Follows the Heat… Right Into the Buzz Saw
Let’s walk through this:
- Frankie finds my Twitter and says,
“I’m not betting all of TSP, just the sharp MLB. Playing it safe.” - The result? Sharp MLB goes 0–4 right after he joins.
- In comes the chirping:
“This info sucks, it’s made up, it’s not sharp…” - So Frankie jumps ship and hops onto Joe Blow’s feed — Joe is 7–0 in the MLB Playoffs.
- As soon as Frankie jumps on… Joe Blow goes 0–3.
Frankie is now 0–7, his nuts are twisted, and he’s screaming into the void about how the gambling gods hate him.
And then, in a theatrical plot twist…
He jumps off a bridge and snags his scrotum on a steel beam on the way down. 🩸🫣
Don’t be Frankie. Please.
📉 Regression Is Not Your Enemy — It’s Inevitable
Here’s the deal:
Nobody wins 100% forever. Nobody loses 100% forever.
The worst time to jump on a capper or system is after a big heater. Why?
Because regression is coming. It always is.
That doesn’t mean the capper is bad. Hell, Joe Blow is still 7–3 after that loss streak.
But Frankie wasn’t in for the 7. He only bought in once the losses hit — like clockwork.
You need to understand this:
Jumping in at the peak of a hot streak is like running into a burning house hoping it cools down.
⚖️ Betting Is About Balance, Not Avoiding Pain
Most bettors — especially the Frankies of the world — chase systems hoping to only feel the highs.
But you can’t have winning without losing. That’s not a flaw — that’s the game.
Even my own sharp content sees swings. Big weekends? Followed by flat or losing ones.
That’s not broken — that’s variance.
If you only bet when it feels easy, you’ll never be around for the profit.
Frankie jumps in during the peak, then jumps off the moment things dip — every time. And each time, he’s never there for the upswing.
🧠 Stop Jumping. Start Thinking.
Let’s be honest. Most people:
- Don’t follow consistent strategies.
- Don’t review long-term performance.
- Don’t manage bankrolls.
- Don’t think before they bet.
It’s not rocket science:
- Go to the site. Look at the records.
- Decide what fits your risk tolerance and bankroll.
- Pick a consistent strategy.
- Stick to it.
You’re not going to win every bet. That’s not the goal.
The goal is to win slightly more than you lose over the long term — and to stay alive long enough to realize that profit.
💡 Build Your Strategy, Not Someone Else’s
I’m not here to hold your hand or build your strategy for you. That’s not personal — it’s just how I operate.
You need to make decisions for yourself. Whether you’re riding with me or someone else, the key is consistency and discipline — not reacting to short-term swings.
🎯 Find content with a proven long-term ROI. Bet smart. Ride out the bumps. Own your decisions.
You do that, and you’re already in the top 10% of bettors.
🏁 The Wrap-Up: Stop Being Frankie
So here’s your plan:
- Don’t chase every piece of content.
- Don’t follow hot streaks like a moth to a flame.
- Accept that regression is part of the journey.
- Develop a bankroll plan and stick with it.
- Stay in long enough to let your edge work.
And above all else…
👉 Don’t be Frankie. Nobody wants to end their gambling career nut-first on a steel beam.
Good luck in your action,
~ TSP