Article was originally published within TSP Newsletter. I am adding it to the Articles section of the to save for future reference.
As of today, the MLB algorithms are +15.5 units on the season — and that doesn’t even include the 1st Inning v2 fade (for those who play it), which would only boost profits further. Sounds great, right?
But here’s the kicker…
To get to that point, the algorithms were once down more than -12 units.
Let that sink in. That’s a +27.5 unit turnaround since the bottom.
So what’s the real point of this article?
👉 To destroy the myth that profitable betting happens in a straight, stress-free line.
💭 The Fantasy vs. The Reality of +EV Strategies
Most bettors fantasize about how a +EV (positive expected value) strategy will play out:
- Start at 0️⃣
- Smoothly grind upward
- End with a profit 💰
LOL. That’s not how any of this works.
A real betting season is more like this:
Start at 0 → Pop to +15 units → Crash to -5 units → Roar back to +13 → Grind to +11 units by season’s end.
Sound familiar? It should — it happens every damn season.
📉 Why Most Bettors Give Up Before the Payoff
Let’s get honest:
When the algorithms hit -12 units, my inbox filled with:
- 🤬 Trolls celebrating
- 😭 Bettors panicking
- 🙄 “This system sucks” comments
But those who stayed the course saw it climb all the way to +15.5. That’s a +27.5 unit run many missed — because they jumped ship during the storm.
You think you can handle volatility — until it punches you in the face.
⚠️ It’s Not Just MLB — This Happens Every Sport, Every Year
Want another example?
🏈 2016 Football Season:
- September: Losing
- October: Still losing
- November: More red
- December: 🔥 +41 units (thanks, NCAA Bowls)
Had I quit in November, I’d have ended with a red season. Instead? One of the best finishes ever.
Profit often shows up last — after most people have already bailed.
🎭 The Illusion of the “Straight-Line Profit”
When you hear someone say:
“Only +5 units? That’s nothing.”
Remember — 85% of sports bettors lose money.
Even +5 units puts you in the top 15%.
And let’s be real — everyone on Twitter wins every bet, right? 🤡
The truth?
- Most profitable seasons include major drawdowns
- Sharp bettors expect and plan for them
- Casuals cry, quit, or chase
💎 Unconventional Profit Paths: A Tale of 2009
Here’s a fun twist…
2009 Football Season Recap:
- Straight bets: -18 units
- Exotics (parlays & teasers): +51 units
- Net profit: +33 units
Wait — exotics carried the year?
Yup. Unlikely, unplanned, but real. The end result still cashed — but the route was anything but typical.
You don’t always get to pick how you win. You just have to stay alive long enough to win.
🧠 Mindset > Handicapping
What separates pros from the rest?
It’s not who’s the smartest or who reads the most stats.
It’s who can handle the following:
- Emotional swings
- Stomach-churning drawdowns
- Confidence hits
- Trolls and doubt
- Discipline to not chase or quit
🎯 Betting is more psychological warfare than statistical analysis.
🐟 Goldfish Memories & the Fallacy of the “Last Week”
We just had our first rough football week this season.
Cue the panic. Cue the “It’s over” crowd.
But remember — we made it nearly to November before a clunker weekend. That’s a feat in itself.
One bad week ≠ trend.
One good week ≠ invincibility.
Stay the course.
🧭 The Right Approach to a Betting Season
At kickoff of Week 0, I don’t know exactly how the season will unfold. But I’m confident of two things:
- I’ll end the season in profit
- It won’t be easy or pretty
If you expect a clear path, Lady Luck’s gonna reach up and…
🖕 Remind you who’s in charge.
You want to be a pro bettor?
Then you better learn how to swim in deep water — while others are drowning, crying, or quitting.
🏁 Final Word: Swim, Don’t Whine
Yes, the ride is hard.
Yes, you’ll want to quit.
Yes, there’s emotional pain.
But if you keep swimming — even when it sucks — there’s a serious reward at the end.
🎁 Profit, respect, and the rare status of being in the top 10-15% of bettors who actually win.
I was a Class A degenerate once too. If I can make it back to shore, so can you.
🏆 The prize is real. You just have to survive the ride.
🎲 Good luck in your action!
– The Sharp Plays