I refer to these posts as articles, but really—they’re more like extended Twitter threads.
I just don’t have the time right now to write journal-length pieces (maybe this summer, or if I get really fired up over a topic 😄). But there’s a need for a middle ground—a place for us to go deeper than 280 characters allows.
So let’s talk about a topic that came up this week:
What happens when “known” bettor plays lose? And more importantly…
How do you react when the impossible happens and the sharp side doesn’t cash?
⚽🥅 KHL and Soccer Draws: A Reality Check
Yesterday and today, the two “known” bettor plays I posted both lost—
- Yesterday: KHL – Draw
- Today: Soccer – Draw
And just like that, you could feel the air shift.
When you’re riding a hot streak—like we’ve been lately—it starts to feel like winning is automatic. The casual bettor gets lulled into a false sense of invincibility.
⚠️ This mindset is incredibly dangerous. It’s how bankrolls get wrecked.
❓ Do “Known” Bettors Lose?
Absolutely. The answer is yes. But here’s what people don’t always understand…
Sharp bettors don’t just have 50% weeks or drop a few units and move on. Sometimes, they go ice cold. I’ve seen some of the best go 0-for-everything in a stretch. It happens.
- They accept it.
- They adjust for it.
- Most importantly, they don’t let it shake their confidence.
Meanwhile, the casual bettor freaks out, questions the system, or overcorrects. That’s where problems begin.
📈 When It’s Hot, It’s HOT… Until It’s Not
There will be weeks—even months—where the “known” bettor plays I post go 60%… 70%… or higher.
You’ll start to think:
“This is stealing.”
“Is my book going to cut me off?”
“Can this really be this easy?”
But then it happens… the cold snap. You start wondering:
“Did The Sharp Plays go on vacation?”
“Who are these known bettors he’s posting??”
What you’re experiencing is regression to the mean.
🔁 What Is Regression to the Mean?
Let’s simplify the stats jargon.
📚 From Wikipedia:
“Regression toward the mean is the phenomenon that arises when a variable that is extreme on its first measurement tends to be closer to average on its next measurement.”
In plain English?
Let’s say Bob is a professional bettor. Over 10 years, he hits 56% of his point spread bets. That’s his mean (his long-term average).
If Bob hits 70% this month…
It’s likely that he’ll regress in the following month(s) to return closer to his 56% lifetime level.
Nobody hits 70% forever. Even the best will level off.
😂 Even Mr. Poison Has Hot Streaks
Take our infamous fade target, Mr. P.
- Long-term: 30% hit rate on NHL 1st period totals (!!!)
- Recent stretch: Went 5-0 😱
Of course, the 5-0 was followed by a crash back to earth—but it proves the point.
Even the worst have hot runs.
Even the best have cold streaks.
💡 So What Do You Do With This Information?
When you see “known” bettors posting wild winning runs (like 70%+ in a month), understand:
That won’t last forever.
Over a full year, those same bettors might have:
- Three months at 60%+
- One brutal month at 35%
- A few middling ones at 50%
And guess what? That’s still elite.
But if you bet recklessly during a cold spell, you could blow your whole bankroll before the epic rebound.
💬 To Wrap It All Up…
- “Known” bettors absolutely lose, just like everyone else.
- They just win more often, and more consistently, over time.
- Betting with sharp action is still one of the strongest edges you can have—when used smartly.
- You must remain disciplined, especially during the tough stretches.
- Never assume the heater will last forever.
- And whatever you do… don’t fade sharp action based on a rough week.
It’s a wavy ride to profits—but over the long term, it’s a ride worth staying on. 🎢💰
Thanks for reading, and for following!
Stay sharp,
~ The Sharp Plays