You have been waiting for MONTHS for the TSP Live 2023-24 Football Futures Reports, so why keep you waiting?!?! Let’s dive right into the 2023-24 futures analysis…
ALL FUTURES LISTED ARE IN ORDER OF SHARP BUYING SIZE
First, let’s take a look at NCAAF. In the college ranks, the Over/Under Regular Season Wins market is always chaotic. There is so much going on in the college O/U wins markets that it makes it tough to cover properly or provide clean looks. I discussed one large buy in the Oddsmaker’s Report last week, but as a reminder here’s what else was getting some action from that alert. The following were very low level…
ARKANSAS UNDER 7 (-115)
ARIZONA STATE OVER 4.5 (-115)
INDIANA OVER 4 (+119)
Now let’s go to NCAA Football Championship futures odds. Obviously, Georgia is the likely on-paper team to win the Championship this year. However, everyone knows that and the public is thereby loading up on those Bulldogs! The public being heavy to Georgia does not mean that Georgia won’t easily roll to another National Championship. However, what we do know by this action is that there’s no value in Georgia. Why? Is the book going to offer value on the most popular futures choice to win the National Championship? Probably not! So, the chances of Georgia winning the title are likely lower than the implied probability in their odds. So, again, that means…no value. If the odds of something happening are 40%, the corresponding moneyline would be +150…at which point that bet would be fair value…because the odds are equal to the implied probability. If the moneyline is instead +130, that equates to a 43.5% chance…and is thereby is a negative value…since the moneyline is providing a probability (43.5%) higher than the actual odds of the event happening (40%). If the moneyline were +200, that is a value. A moneyline of +200 means something has a 33.3% chance of happening based on the book’s assessment, but since I calculate it as having a better chance (40%) of happening, much better than the book calculates…that’s a value! So, just FYI when you tell me USC has no chance because Georgia is going to win it all. Perhaps true, but the sharps play the value. Even though USC’s odds are +1200 which corresponds to a small 7.7% chance of winning the national championship (compared to Georgia’s +240 which is a 29.4% implied probability), the sharps might see USC as having an 8.2% chance. Hardly a big chance…but clearly a value since 8.2% is higher than the book’s calculated 7.7% based on the odds. So, when you look at values and sharp buys for futures, it needs to be under the implied and calculated probability light that sharp bettors use.
So, I spoiled one of the futures wagers seeing consistent sharp buying, here are the other two. Remember, all futures wagers in this report are listed in the order of the size of the sharp buy…
LSU +1000
MICHIGAN +800
USC +1200
Now let’s go to the NFL and start with sharp buying on NFL win totals. The win totals seeing sharp buying would be…
BALTIMORE UN10.5 (-105)
PHILADELPHIA UN11.5 (-140)
BUFFALO OV10.5 (-145)
TAMPA BAY OV6 (-130)
=== Then there is a material gap in the level of sharp action from the four above and the next three below, so FYI. ===
GREEN BAY OV7.5 (-135)
NEW ORLEANS OV9.5 (+105)
INDIANAPOLIS OV6.5 (-115)
Next, for divisional futures, I am seeing material buying on…
GREEN BAY +340
INDIANAPOLIS +700
ATLANTA +180
CHICAGO +450
LA RAMS +1000
It is likely the huge public money on San Francisco to win the division is pushing the other prices out of whack, and the sharps are grabbing this probability disparity…seeing the Rams having a fair value of perhaps +900 (still a long shot) and the book is giving +1000.
Educational note: Most casual bettors (94% of those reading this today) only care about profits in the here and now…in this season…in this moment. Sharp bettors will play an LA Rams +1000 ticket knowing they might lose this type of long shot this season, next season, the season after, and the season after that…BUT if they finally cash such a ticket in the fifth season of taking these shots…they are profitable and it was all worth it! The long-term versus instant gratification dynamic I just laid out of Pro versus Joe is missed on SO MANY bettors. They feel there is no chance the LA Rams win the division this year, and that is likely the case, so why bet it?!?! Eventually a play with value like the Rams will win, and it will make all the losing tickets in the process worthwhile.
For NFL conference championships, I am seeing material buying on…
AFC
BUFFALO +550
CINCINNATI +525
NFC
ATLANTA +2800
DALLAS +550
GREEN BAY +2200
Yes, NFC is seeing a lot of shot taking, see Educational note in blue above.
Last but not least, let’s go with the Super Bowl futures market.
BUFFALO +850
KANSAS CITY +650
Looks like the sharps feels the champ is coming out of the AFC. There is almost nothing for NFC futures in terms of material sharp buying.
I have never covered this angle in these futures reports before, but let’s take a look at the book’s biggest liabilities in the futures market. So, these are the bets the book would like to see LOSE!!! They are listed in order of the volume of money the books will absorb on a loss…
1) Georgia to win the NCAAF Championship
2) Kansas City to win the Super Bowl
3) San Francisco to win the Super Bowl
4) Philadelphia to win the Super Bowl
5) Kansas City to win the AFC West
6) Philadelphia to win the NFC Championship
7) Philadelphia to win the NFC East
8) San Francisco to win the NFC West
9) Detroit to win the NFC North
10) Cincinnati to win the AFC North
Taking everything into account, what are the futures I am on (in no particular order)…
OHIO ST UN10.5 (-115)
LSU to win the National Championship +1000
BUFFALO Super Bowl +850 (Dawson Knox 1st TD +1500 in February…LOL!)
GREEN BAY to win the NFC North +340
BALTIMORE UN10.5 (-105)
PHILADELPHIA UN11.5 (-140)
Good luck in your action and here’s to a fun and profitable season!!